INE, T-MECINE, and the new risk landscape companies must anticipate in 2026

INE, the T-MEC, and the new risk landscape companies must anticipate in 2026

I know what you’re thinking: “Really—another year of political, economic, and social uncertainty? How do I prepare? Is there anything I can actually do?”

It’s not paranoia. 2026 is indeed shaping up to be a high-risk year. And you know it because the warning signs are already there: reforms that remain unclear, diplomatic tensions, growing fiscal pressure, contradictory government signals, and, on top of that, an increasingly fragmented international environment. If you lead corporate communications, public affairs, or sustainability in Mexico, this is the moment when you are expected to be visionary—with very little solid ground beneath your feet.

At Komunika Latam, we support organizations across sectors in identifying, analyzing, and managing strategic, reputational, and operational risks, helping them anticipate critical scenarios and strengthen decision-making. Click here.

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In this article, I summarize the most relevant findings from two key sources:

1. Global outlook: the world in competition mode

The year 2026 does not look stable. According to the WEF’s Global Risks Report 2026, half of the experts surveyed expect a “turbulent” or “stormy” environment over the next two years. What is worrying is not only the number of risks, but also their speed, interconnection, and the lack of global coordination to address them.

The most pressing short-term risks are:

  • Geoeconomic confrontation: the use of economic tools such as sanctions, tariffs, and investment controls as weapons of political pressure. Does that sound familiar in light of the upcoming USMCA review and the ongoing tariff threats from Donald Trump’s administration?

  • Disinformation and polarization: these undermine trust, social cohesion, and governance.

  • Economic risks: inflation, financial volatility, and debt.

  • Technology out of control: especially AI and cybersecurity.

Although environmental risks have lost priority in the short term, they remain the most serious in the long term. In the WEF’s long-term outlook, climate-related events rank first. Mexico is not isolated from any of these trends.

2. Ten political risks for companies in Mexico

According to Integralia Consultores, these are the 10 scenarios that could most affect companies in Mexico this year:

  1. Electoral reform that weakens the INE and concentrates power in the currently dominant political group: Morena.

  2. USMCA review with tougher conditions for Mexico.

  3. Regulatory uncertainty stemming from recent reforms in justice, water, customs, and other key sectors.

  4. U.S. activism in the region, with pressure on Mexico regarding security and foreign policy. Remember Venezuela.

  5. Rising social unrest, including roadblocks and protests, especially during the World Cup, as some groups may try to use the event’s visibility to demonstrate.

  6. Tension with the private sector, marked by growing tax pressure and official frustration.

  7. Fragility of the new judiciary, with unpredictable rulings and limited professional experience among newly elected judges and magistrates.

  8. Persistence of organized crime, with territorial control remaining intact.

  9. Tax and labor reforms that increase the burden on businesses.

  10. Pemex’s operational deterioration, with fiscal impact and systemic risks.

Learn more about Risk Management and Crisis Management.

3. Practical Recommendations

You cannot control risk, but you can improve your preparedness. Here are five concrete actions:

  • Actively monitor risks on an ongoing basis: involve legal, communications, and sustainability teams.
    Assess your strategic exposures: map vulnerabilities based on your sector.
    Strengthen institutional relationships: engage in chambers and networks to stay ahead.
    Prepare your public narrative: silence in the face of disinformation also communicates.
    Build operational resilience: diversify suppliers, reinforce logistics, and adjust contracts.

The goal is not to predict the future, but to anticipate it more effectively. 2026 will be complex, yes—but not unmanageable. If you have clarity on the risks and begin preparing responses now, you will be several steps ahead. This is not the year to improvise.

Anticipating risks is not optional. At Komunika Latam, we’re here to support you. Contact us

Fidel Salazar
Consulting Director
fsalazar@komunikalatam.com
LinkedIn: Fidel Salazar

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